Uncertainty Tracer

Motivation:

  • Suppose that we have dry adiabatic reasonably linear motion evolving over a region of Oklahoma, a tracer that tracks modeling error should treat this as reasonably certain
  • e.g. smoothed orography and other idealizations should be a "source" of variance and this should propagate with finite speed (i.e. approximately hyperbolically with the wind).

Notes

  • Assume that we have a quantitative estimate of modeling uncertainty from associated physics parameterizations.

  • Assume that non-local contributions (e.g. diffusion and parabolicity) are negligible over the whole domain (Possibly better to do this in non-hydrostatic)

  • Assume that physics parameterizations have an associated "modeling uncertainty" which

  • Tractability assumption: all sources of uncertainty are the same?

  • This is probably most useful for short-term forecasts?

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